Wednesday 8 June 2011

Fantasy stuff

Here's a couple of posers for you in your (imaginary) job as Derbyshire's cricket supremo.

You are coming to the end of the season and have two 23 year old players. Both are technically very good and are strong mentally, though not powerful physically at this stage of their careers.

Player A has played 7 games, 11 innings, 133 runs average 12.09

Player B has played 26 games, 42 innings, 1109 runs average 29.97

Resources mean you have to sack one of them, but you can give a three-year contract to the other. Who do you sack? Player A, presumably?

Having sorted that one, next you have two 21 year old players to consider. Both are 'flair players' with a lot of natural ability that can see them perceived as a bit rash or careless at times.

Player A has played 58 games, 82 innings, 1606 runs average 22.30

Player B has played 39 games, 64 innings, 1740 runs average 29.00

Again, you have to sack one player and give the other a three-year contract. Once again, I would suggest on record you would sack player A.

Congratulations. In the first example above, you have just sacked Chris Rogers and given a three-year deal to Paul Borrington. In the second, you sacked Kim Barnett and gave Dan Redfern a three-year deal...

That's young cricketers for you and why I feel too many give them a raw deal. If you want more examples:

At the age of 24, Chris Adams was averaging 27
At the age of 22, John Morris was averaging 27
At the age of 23. Eddie Barlow was averaging 28
At the same age, Peter Bowler was averaging 25. So was Martin Guptill.
At the age of 24, Greg Smith was averaging 22
At the age of 22, one of our greatest batsmen, Denis Smith, was averaging just 13...

If you want to go outside the county, Graham Gooch averaged 24 when he was 23 and Mark Butcher 23 when he was 22. Yet still we moan about under-achievement!

Reading about Ross Whiteley's (pictured) knock for the Seconds yesterday (65 not out from 37 balls against a decent Lancashire attack with first team experience) heightened my feeling that he is potentially our most destructive young player since Ian Blackwell. At 22 his first team statistics are not overly impressive (17 average with the bat and just one wicket) but I have always been impressed by his clean hitting and feel his bowling can come on still further. He has a tendency to drop one down leg side regularly, but that's just a case of grooving the action a little more. He can swing it and with experience will gain in confidence.

Others, like Ben Slater, Hamza Siddique and Tom Poynton are showing enough flashes of talent to warrant genuine optimism, Poynton batting four and aggressively for the Seconds and keeping wicket with great style (and no little vocal talent!)

But you can't expect perpetual brilliance from kids. Why, Dean Jones only averaged 33 when he was 21, and Michael di Venuto 34 when he was 22. They were/are exceptional players, yet in average not massively ahead of Redfern and Borrington at a comparable stage.

It makes no sense whatsoever, on any level, to cut ties with young players of that age. They make money for the club on each appearance until they are 26 and if they've not done it by then, fair enough. Socially, emotionally, physically and technically few are really cutting it before 23 or 24 anyway. Playing cricket for your livelihood is massively different to playing with your mates at the weekend and when some of those on the boundary edge go into print saying you're a waste of space (or worse) it can't be easy. I've had bad days in my working life, but no one has ever gone onto a web site that evening and told the world about it. That's a crucial difference.

A contributor the other night suggested that the players were well rewarded. I understand that the young summer contract players at Derbyshire are on around £1,000 for playing in July and August, after their University commitments. Throw in their gear and its a good deal for a student - a world better than slaving away in a fast food outlet, but not exactly Rockefeller standard. Ross Whiteley is probably on less than £5K for his summer deal and will have earned that back for the club from his appearances this summer. Borrington and Redfern will probably be on less than £20K is my guess, but next year, with under 22s likely to attract £2,500 per game and under-26s earning the club £2,000 per appearance I expect both to feature heavily.

Returning to the early theme of this post, what would you do? Pay Greg Smith £70-80K to keep him at Derbyshire? We've already invested a lot of money in Smith and he's still technically an overseas player costing us more each time he plays. Critics would suggest he's only had two really good summers and that if he was going to re-sign he would have done so by now. They might also suggest that the player has used Derbyshire as a convenience, retaining his South African citizenship despite opportunities to qualify much more quickly.

Or do we accept that he's going and invest time, opportunity and much less money in Ross Whiteley, giving him a three-year deal and encouraging him to go out there, confident that his place is secure to play his natural game? During that time he will bring in money each time he steps onto the pitch. I'm genuinely confident that the lad could take that number six berth and make it his own, just as I am that Poynton will be a very good wicket-keeper batsman for Derbyshire for years when Luke Sutton takes a step back.

From a purely financial angle, playing Hughes, Redfern, Borrington, Knight/Needham, Whiteley and (maybe) Poynton next year would bring in enough money to finance a top overseas player. You could notionally go with this side

Madsen, Borrington, Hughes, Durston, Redfern, Whiteley, Sutton/Poynton, Clare, Groenewald, Palladino, Knight/Needham

You'll note that side includes Tim Groenewald, who I think will stay, and doesn't include an overseas player. The identity and skills of that person are as yet unknown, so there's no point putting someone in for the sake of it.

A young side? Yes, but improving. Last year we came bottom with an experienced one AND lost £180K. How we do with this one is open to conjecture, but we wouldn't do worse - and would at least balance the books.

For me, as Chris Grant is poised to unveil his plans to the Derbyshire committee, it is the way forward. Karl Krikken, responsible for the emergence of these youngsters, would play a major part in the future too, working alongside an overseas player/coach. He knows the players, they respect him to a man, there's experience and exciting talent side by side and this would prepare us for cricket in the long term, as a club run to an effective business model that would be one for others to emulate.

It's the way forward all right. The DERBYSHIRE way.

22 comments:

  1. no mention of Park? where does he fit into the budget and players at present?

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  2. Very good peakfan. I can see now why you,ve been a bit quiet lately (joking). Im going to chew this over a bit and get back to you.

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  3. LOL Marc. Just too busy at work to post last night and doing a bit of research.
    Park? Love him as a cricketer, I've said before the best fielder I've ever seen in Derbyshire colours, a gritty batsman, useful bowler and lovely bloke. But he's 28 and playing second team on a senior player's salary. Can we afford that?

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  4. Another outstanding article Peakfan, agree with you with regards to park, do you know if he is costing the club money as he was born in SA. (maybe you can do a piece on how much money is being lost/gained per match as im still unsure with how it is broken down.) Whiteley will be a massive player for us in the next few years i reckon.

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  5. An interesting slant on selection with a strong focus on the financial aspects methinks. Although, I would be surprised if this is Grant's 'groundbreaking' approach, though what masterstroke he has up his sleeve remains a mystery to me.

    As regards the blueprint you have suggested Peakfan, I guess it depends whether you view if that of a supporter or that of the club's principal decision maker (whatever the title may end up being). Whether the man in charge is willing to run the risk of an inexperienced line up being given a season or three to establish itself is open to a lot of doubt. The pure principle is laudable, but I am far from sure it will happen in practice. Worries of lost popularity and the thought of pear shapes may well prove a deterrent.

    For all those late developers you have cited, I strongly suspect there are plenty more that started poor to modestly and never improved sufficiently. The question is, have we got the former or latter types amongst our ranks? One way or another, we do need to find out because the collection of youngsters associated with the first team has grown markedly, yet most remain very much peripheral figures. Needham and Borrington are, for me, the two most senior members of this group with question marks hanging over their heads. We and they need to know if they have futures at the club.

    I have to say that I have been quite impressed with David Capel's approach and relative success. I feel he has moved in the right direction by stripping out most of his Saffers. I would support Derbyshire slimming down too on the non-official overseas contingent, perhaps, leaving the best, Madsen and Hughes and, perhaps one other at the very most.

    A thoughtful and bold idea Peakfan, but with respect, you are not answerable to the fans or board if it was to go belly up. Is someone bold enough to try it?

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  6. Okay peakfan,here goes.

    Im not a big fan of statistics at the best of times, which is why i seldom use them. As you probably know,if there,s a 50 per cent chance something can go wrong,then nine times out of ten it will!. I once found a statistician with his head in an oven and his feet in two blocks of ice. He said on average he was feeling fine. Sorry for that,i,ll get serious now,but you do have to be a bit careful with things like averages. They only tell part of the story.

    For instance.A batsmen scores 100 not out, followed by 5 successive ducks. His average is 20. On that basis,most people would probably criticise him for a lack of consistency.
    Another batsmen also averages 20, only he does it by scoring 20 in each of 5 innings. On the face of it you can,t criticise him for a lack of consistency, only that he hasn,t managed a substantial innings. Depends on how you interpret things.

    To get to the main thrust of another excellent piece, i find it hard to contradict many of your points. As ive said previously on here, i want these players to come good. It would be great for Derbyshire cricket to see our own talent coming through and would give everyone much satisfaction. My only doubt is how long are you prepared to wait. You suggest 26 as a cut off point. Its a bit longer than i would give, unless someone is showing real talent,in which case we wouldn,t be having a debate anyway. However, i wont split hairs on a year or two. The phylosophy is more important than a minor technicality.

    Given we can almost certainly write this season off in terms of silverwear,then i would support the introduction of some young players and give them an extended run. On the face of it,there would be little to lose. I mentioned a while ago that i wouldn,t pamper to any player who wasn,t committed to the cause. When i suggested rotating batsmen to accomodate Borrington, then Smith was number one on the list. I wont criticise him too much as i don,t want to be blamed for any subsequent suicide attempt, but surely Whiteley can do at least as well,if not better.

    Your financial point is obviously a valid one, though i suspect most supporters are only interested in the team and would leave that side of things to our wonderful committee.

    What we are crying out for are a two or three good experienced players who can lead by example. If we had those,particularly a couple of middle order batsmen and a spinner,it would be much easier to blood youngsters in what would be a half decent team.

    Talking of young players, NOW is the time to extend Hughes,s contract. We don,t want to lose him and it expires next year. This is where we need a bit of forward planning. You have been warned!.

    Great article anyway,peakfan. We dont agree on everything,but at least we say what we think.

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  7. Excellent article, and i completely agree that the youngsters should be given a chance and hopefully allowed to flourish.
    Hughes is clearly a superb talent, and if Redfern can just start converting his starts into big innings then he can be just as good if not better. The key for him is reaching his maiden century.Also think he should be playing one day and T20 cricket.

    Paul Borrington has clearly been scoring a lot of runs in village cricket, but is yet to consistently hack it for Derbyshire, but i'd love to see him get a run in the team, as would i like to see Whiteley and Knight be given a run in the team and Tom Poynton a chance.

    My team next year:
    Madsen
    Borrington
    Hughes
    Durston
    Redfern
    Sutton
    Whiteley
    Clare
    Overseas bowler
    Palladino
    Knight

    This would assume Smith + Groeneweld leave, and the overseas player or player/coach would be another issue.

    All in all though i agree with what you say Peakfan and think its an excellent article.

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  8. Having played against Whiteley in the league this season he looks like he will make a better batsmen than bowler at a county level unless he finds an extra yard of pace or consistenly swings the ball a la Kevin Dean. It would be good to see him picked for some one day cricket in the coming months as he strikes the ball very cleanly.

    With regards to payments for the younger players, it would be very interesting to know the deals for Poynton, Whiteley and Knight through DCCC and Swarkestone CC - with the chairman of both clubs being the same Mr Grant. A little bit of a conflict of interest in my opinion, particularly as the county league rules state you can only have one professional signed on. Thus Whiteley and Poynton on summer contracts don't count as pro's but are presumably having their county salary significantly topped up through Mr Grant.

    Last weeks announcement will be interesting to follow as lots of names are being suggested as to who is the pipeline and what exactly is grounbreaking about these proposals that no other county club has ever tried? I'm hoping it's not just to stir some media interest and raise optimism among supporters but a genuine effort to improve success of the team on the pitch over the next 5 years.

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  9. One criticism of both Borrington and Redfern is the slow rate at which they score runs in the first team. It wouldn,t have mattered so much in the past,but these days batsmen have to be much more adaptable with all the one day cricket being played. It,s bound to count against them,particularly as neither offer anything on the bowling front and no county can afford too many players who only specialise in one form of the game. Maybe it,s a confidence thing,but both would be wise to address this problem and give themselves a better chance. As it stands now,neither could be seriously considered for limited overs cricket.

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  10. Talking of players I read after we lost Khwaja that Chris Grant said that it takes six weeks for a player to get a visa. I wonder then how Leicester got one for Abdul Razzaq straight away? Do they have friends in high places? He is just the player we need for the 20/20, good opening bowler and a huge hitter with 60 odd off only 30 balls at Lancs tonight.

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  11. They can,t have done it illegally,thats for sure. What makes you think he arrived straight away?. Could have been in the pipeline for some time.

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  12. The first bit of good news to come out of Derbyshire County Cricket Club for a very long time today; Karl Krikken has been appointed as Head of Cricket on a permanent basis. I know that we haven't won a game since Morris was sacked in what seems like an eternity away but how could Krik focus properly when knowing that the chairman was looking to replace him. Hopefully with all the speculation over we can all get behind Krik and focus on some cricket!
    Some good stats etc and speculation Peakfan but we'll not need all that now because in Krik we have a man that can sort all this for us.
    As they say somewhere; 'In Krikken we Trust'.

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  13. I think playing one day cricket would aid the development of the likes of Borrington and Redfern, and would progress their overall game.
    Besides Madsen is also generally a slow scorer in CC cricket, but apart from Durston has been our best one day batsman.

    Also i'm a believer that if your good enough to play 4 day county cricket, then you can play any type of county cricket whether it be 40 over or T20.
    With regards to Redfern he does have a tendency to bat negatively and is generally a slow scorer, howver in the situation, he is adaptable enough to score quickly, something he demonstrated by his 2nd innings against Kent and in the MCC match.
    I'd like to see both of them involved in all forms of county cricket, and the moves after the committee meeting last night suggest thay may well do, along with the likes of Whiteley, Poynton and Knight in the future.

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  14. You may prove to be right Washy, my point is they are not suited to one day cricket at the moment. They dont have the required shots or the power and playing them at present would not benefit either them or the team. Maybe they can adapt,im not saying they can,t,but to force the issue now would be a mistake. The three you mention at the end of your comment are,in my opinion,far closer to fulfilling the requirements of one day cricket.

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  15. A lot of valid arguments, but the basic line ups being cited are unlikely to see the side move up the CC table in the short term. That might not be an issue for a lot of the contributors here, but both the commercial impact and Grant's wider reputation might not stand up to the county enjoying a further extended period of mediocrity (or worse) in line with what we have experienced over recent years.

    It is the old concundrum: it is an investment or expense to the club to blood youngsters?

    Of course, the supposition emerging in this thread is one of ultimate success, which might occur, but there are no guarantees.

    I am not wishing to put a damper on this particular article or thoughts it has provoked, but I cannot imagine this is Grant's 'groundbreaking' scheme because it does not fit with that description in my book.

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  16. I tend to agree with you mastervillain.Im going to wait for peakfan to respond before adding my comments.

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  17. By the way peakfan,that Amorok should be renamed Anorak. Sorry to anyone who,s got one but it looks like a dogs dinner.

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  18. Could have been designed by Derbyshires committee.

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  19. Good article - I know there is debate about whether the young lads should be in the first team but nowadays more than ever you need a squad of 16-18 and I would prefer the squad to have academy players such as Borrington, Redfern and Poynton etc in rather than bought in hands who have not pulled up trees at other counties and we are just taking a risk on.

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  20. Positive news about Krikken but I am already tired of hearing the word 'groundbreaking'.
    Lets face it having an Head of Cricket and an overseas player is hardly groundbreaking!
    If you listen to Chris Grant for long enough you start thinking that he had just invented the wheel!

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  21. I have had a look at Borrington's figures in more depth and have to say, I can't quite see why there has been such a heavy focus on him in particular, Peakfan.

    His CC2 stats:

    18 games (he has had two regular spells in the 1st XI in 2008 & 2010 of 7 and 6 games respectively).

    Overall:

    Inns NO Ave SR
    32 2 24.07 33.6

    As opener:

    Inns NO Ave SR
    19 1 24.72 32.6

    As a middle order player:

    Inns NO Ave SR
    13 1 23.08 35.4

    There is no significant improvement in his statistics as an opener, which involved his 7 match run in the team in 2008.

    As Marc suggested, his strike rate is very low, whether batting at the top of the order or lower down. It is that aspect that concerns me more than his current average.

    Surprisingly, he has scored 432 runs in 4s, which means he has only scored 290 runs in ones, twos or threes at a strike rate of 14.2! This is clear evidence that he has not got to grips with the skills of nudging the ball around to pick up runs here and there to keep the scoreboard ticking over.

    His innings currently last an average of 67 balls, so he can hang around in relative terms to the runs he has scored. However, I suspect the nature of his current sporadic scoring must build up the psychological pressure on he must feel, which may lay seed to his demise in many of his innings.

    What we have to ask ourselves is whether he can overcome this deficiency or whether the step up in class with the bowlers he faces as CC2 level is too great a jump for him to overcome.

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  22. As Chairman of Swarkestone Cricket Club I would like to make the following observations on "League Player's" opinions:
    Mr Grant is not Chairman of Swarkestone.
    My good friend Mr Grant (who I have had privilege of knowing for the last 24 years) was elected Honorary President of Swarkestone CC at our last agm.
    Tom Poynton is our " County Contracted professional" not on a summer contract.

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