Any assertion on what the season holds for Derbyshire is largely dependent on one's confidence in the bullish assertions coming from the coaching staff this winter.
On the face of it, portents are not good. From a relatively small squad of last year we have lost a talented batsman in Ben Slater, one of our strike bowlers in Hardus Viljoen, and an experienced wicket-keeper batsman in Gary Wilson.
Coming the other way there are season-long contracts for talented but as yet unproven cricketers. Tom Lace joins on loan from Middlesex and is likely to open, while Anuj Dal and Matt McKiernan have a chance to shine after showing potential in brief glimpses last year. So too does Scotland spinner Mark Watt, a late addition to the ranks.
There should be few qualms over the batting, although the order may experience tweaks over the summer. The perennially reliable Billy Godleman and Wayne Madsen will be near to a thousand in four-day cricket and I expect a similar return from Luis Reece, as long as the demands on his bowling are not excessive. 'The Derbyshire Kallis' is a key component of this side in all formats and was sorely missed last year. Alex Hughes will be keen to confirm the strides he has made over the past two summers and I hope that his seam bowling is better utilised in the four-day game than it has been in the past.
Much will be expected from Matt Critchley, who appears to be a player on the verge of something special. His role at six is important and if he can add improved shot selection to great natural talent and timing, his batting could be a real asset. So too his leg-spin, after work with Indian great Anil Kumble this winter.
I expect all of them to have benefited from Dave Houghton's tutelage, and if Tom Lace lives up to Houghton's respect for his talent, we should score runs both prolifically and attractively. Anuj Dal will push for a place in the side and his wristy stroke play will prove popular if he gets there. Don't discount his bowling either, as word is he is bowling accurately and around 80mph, making him a very useful cricketer.
The presence of three (four if you count Madsen) genuine all-rounders in the top six allows the lower order to be flexible. They could opt to play an extra batsman on occasion, or include a second spinner when conditions suit. Ahead of the bowlers, Harvey Hosein has the chance to make the wicket-keeping role his own. Few doubt he is one of the best-organised batsmen in the club, but he will now need to show that over a full summer, as well as maintaining high standards behind the stumps. If he can do that, the position will be his for a long time, with Daryn Smit lined up as second team skipper and back up to Hosein if required. Yet don't be surprised if we see more of Smit in the first team, and the same high standards that make him second to only Bob Taylor as a keeper in my experience may yet be further utilised at senior level.
The bowling? Therein lies the biggest question mark. Can Tony Palladino once again lead the attack with ageless skill and stay fit over a long summer? For that matter, can Ravi Rampaul? He had his health issues last year and these two, as the senior bowlers, need to set the standard. There should not be so many needless extras with Viljoen gone, while Hosein will likely sleep better in the knowledge that he shouldn't need to throw himself around so much.
Logan van Beek arrives as overseas player for the summer and should benefit from being unknown around these parts. He comes highly recommended and with the incentive that a good summer will elevate him in the New Zealand seam-bowling rankings.If he finds a length early, his aggressive bowling and uncomplicated batting will make him a firm fan favourite.
Opportunity has been promised to young bowlers and a young squad has plenty of those. While Alfie Gleadall is feeling his way back from injury, both Sam Conners and James Taylor will back up the senior bowlers. Bowling coach Steve Kirby has said how impressed he has been with them both and the test will come out in the middle, at senior level. Gleadall showed at Durham last year that he can bowl quickly, as well as being an organised batsman, so the trio offer exciting potential.
Likewise Hamidullah Qadri 's off spin and Matt McKiernan's leg spin will battle for opportunity, both of them capable of scoring runs too, as is Mark Watt. If they can progress, their youth offers spin options for some time to come.
It is a long while since a Derbyshire squad had such a youthful look and most supporters will be pleased to see talent emerging and encouraged. That being the case, patience may be required, but the summer looks like being anything but dull.
They will need their share of luck, but in a division with some big, far more affluent clubs I expect team spirit to play a key role. We already know that on their day the side is capable of slugging it out with and beating the best. If we can add that ten per cent of fortune, winter development and calmness at key points in the game, who knows?
Prediction
Last year I stood alone at the start of the summer in predicting a top half finish in the county championship. They were ten points off doing that, and but for poor bowling against Glamorgan and especially Durham would have done so with ease, losing games that were there for the taking.
Greater discipline this year will get them there.
Anything more than that, we will need luck with the weather/injuries and hold our catches.
As well as having a squad that plays to and above its potential.
