Two games to go and there is one sure thing about the county championship relegation issue.
It is going to go to the last game.
Just as last year, when, while we were playing Hampshire at Derby we were keeping an eye on Yorkshire's game against Essex, Wednesday's game against Durham will see supporters keeping an eye on the one at Taunton, where Somerset and Surrey face off.
We could have had an easier game, for sure, but the game at the County Ground pits the two form teams of the country against one another. How many thought we would be saying that a month ago? Durham will start favourites as their form in the past month has been extraordinary, rising through the table like a phoenix from the ashes. They are a strong side, as befits one at the top of the table and there are similarities with Derbyshire.
Durham have no overseas player and have based their campaign on a batting line-up where everyone contributes and a strong seam attack that has produced the goods. time and time again. They beat us easily at The Riverside, although our batting line-up that day of Hughes, Johnson, Madsen, Chanderpaul, Durston and Redfern is some way removed from what will take the field on Wednesday. Chesney may be back from paternity leave, but Karl Krikken may stick with the pair who gave him good starts at Taunton in a side that I expect to show few, if any changes.
Their win in the earlier game was largely due to a big stand between Jennings and Borthwick, when we didn't bowl especially well and missed an opportunity or two. For us to win this one, we need the bowling to maintain discipline and be backed up by razor-sharp fielding. We're going to need the same resolution down the order that has been shown throughout the last month and a big innings from one or two players.
Confidence should be high though and whatever happens, the key will be results elsewhere. If we beat Durham, I expect Somerset to be too strong for Surrey and it will then come down to the last game, when we host Warwickshire and Somerset play our near neighbours Nottinghamshire at Trent Bridge. Given that after a tricky trip to play Middlesex, Nottinghamshire have to go to Durham themselves, the relegation issue could yet prove to be a four-horse race.
Nottinghamshire have had a poor summer and theirs is not a happy camp, with Michael Lumb and Alex Hales at odds with the club, wanting to play IPL next year while the club says no. They would appear to have too much talent to go down, but not enough to be embroiled in a battle to avoid the drop. A squad that looks better than any in the country on paper continually fails to deliver, much in the same way as Surrey.
Both sides lack a major factor in the recent success of Derbyshire and Durham. Team spirit. That mentality was strong for us last year and the on-field 'chirpiness' of the side is evidence of its return. Opponents know they are playing a team, not a disparate group of individuals where the failure of the big names causes the collapse of the side.
I don't know if we will stay up any more than the rest of you, but we will go down fighting. If we stay up it will be as great a feat as any in the club's history given the radical shift in the club's fortunes from August onwards. It augurs well for next year if we stay up, while a repeat of this form would have division two sides wary of a (hopefully strengthened) Derbyshire side next summer.
Let's not think about that though. At The Riverside we bowled them out for 253 on the first day. In their second innings nine of their players made only 91 runs between them. We simply batted very badly, with the exception of Chanderpaul and Poynton and had a couple of bad sessions that characterised our earlier season with the ball.
If we can keep recent form going, they are beatable.
There could be some twists and turns yet though I really don,t believe Notts will become embroiled in a relegation battle. Surely they are too good for that to happen and they do have three games to play.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see what kind of wicket we prepare. There are risks attatched what ever type of track it is. I would expect it to assist the seamers which is perhaps our strongest suit. Although Wainwright took three second innings wickets at Taunton,so did Chanderpaul and Madsen and I still get the feeling that he is well below his best.I,ve few doubts he will play and his presence does pep up the lower batting.
The two main question marks for selection are Alex Hughes and Paul Borrington. Hughes played solidly in his second innings at Somerset under a considerable amount of pressure and may have done just enough to hold his place. Durston seems to be well out of favour so I think it unlikely he will return now. We have to go back to Chesney Hughes who should now be available. Borrington simply hasn,t done enough to hold his place. Fair enough,he,s occupied the crease for varying lengths of time,though anybody other that Keiswetter would have had him out very early in the first innings at Somerset. Hughes is just more likely to produce a telling innings and with bonus points an obvious prioriy we need to score runs at a healthy rate,which Hughes usually does. I assume Clare is still injured so that would rule him out.Do we stick with both keepers?. I think we should. Both have scored runs recently and leaving either out would be harsh.
The important thing is we make a good start to the match whether we bat or bowl first. As I said earlier,our fate could easily hinge on how many bonus points we can accumulate. I think we can give Durham a bloody nose if we play to our maximum and don,t go into our shell.
Totally agree, I feel chesney is capable of being a match winner, where you feel bozza will hang around abit then get out around 30,he may take the shine off the ball but wont be capable of winning a game for you on his own.
ReplyDeleteDave.
I think we'd leave one of Poynton and Johnson out at our peril. They have been the most consistent of our batsmen over the last five matches - not only in terms of average in the low 30's (behind only Madsen) but also the stability they give the middle order, and their low failure rate -the second innings at Taunton being a rare example, after I'd confidently predicted they would be key to us reaching the target.
ReplyDeleteI think the same about Borrington, much as it goes against the grain of everything I said last year about him. With Slater, he's given us a solid base in the past two matches, and fought through some very challenging periods. There's probably no bowling side that this will be more important against than Durham. None of them will match Chesney Hughes at his best, but it's a few months since we've seen that, and in the last few games he's played, he's actually not been doing much better than Billy Godleman did. With Slater and Borrington opening and Johnson and Poynton in the middle order, on current form, we can be reasonably confident that they'll contribute 120 to 150. We'll still rely on Madsen and/or Chanderpaul for a challenging score but we'll have a solid base.
I think you have to judge Alex Hughes solely on his batting contribution at the moment. All the signs are that Madsen's completely lost confidence in his bowling, and he does look very ordinary. He's averaging 17 with two top scores of 33 and a lot of failures in between, and this doesn't make a convincing case for him keeping his place. The argument for staying with him is that both of his top scores have been very significant in the context of the games. On balance, I'll go with playing the extra bowler - Burgoyne (with the bonus of his batting which has been more consistent than Hughes) or Higginbottom.
As or the pitch, I think we should look to go toe-to-toe with Durham on pace bowling. The chances of defeating them may not be great, but this is how Middlesex did it.