No exact science

It is encouraging, in some perverse way, to see James Harris thinking over his next move after leaving Glamorgan and not just accepting what he has described as a "very good offer" from our neighbours at the other end of the A52.

There will be few counties in the top flight who won't be interested in a bowler who always seems to get wickets and is a handy and improving late order batsman. I'm sure that Derbyshire would be, assuming that we got a top flight slot, but whether we could afford a player of genuine international potential is a different matter. There is little doubt, however, that promotion for Derbyshire this summer would see a different issue in the signing of  new recruits.

Realistically, whoever comes into the county this winter has to be better than we already have and has to give a reasonable guarantee of runs or wickets in the top division. Who offers that is going to be something that will occupy the minds of Karl Krikken and his coaching staff, along with Chris Grant, who will handle the contract discussions. Finding players who can coast along in the second tier as "old Derbyshire" used to do is relatively easy - getting people in who are good enough to mix it with the big boys is another matter.

I understand that some fans are already suggesting a move for the recently released Billy Godleman of Essex. When he was making his way in the county game at Middlesex, Godleman was talked about as an England player of the future. Yet it has never worked out for him as people expected and he has a career average of 30 per innings after around 120 first-class knocks. As a comparator, the oft-unfairly castigated Paul Borrington averages 28.5 from half the number of innings. I'm wary of players brought up on southern wickets moving up north, as there's not that many have made a decent fist of it in my recollection, but Godleman is the right age to perhaps get better,

It's a long way from an exact science. Last week I wrote that I had always rated Joe Sayers of Yorkshire, who has a first-class average in the mid-thirties. This summer he averaged only 17 for Yorkshire Seconds. Similarly I think that young players like Scott Elstone and Karl Turner at Nottinghamshire and Laurie Evans at Warwickshire have talent. All have scored stacks of runs for their respective county second strings this year, averaging in the mid-60s, yet none has so far translated that form to the first-class game. To be fair, Evans had a good T20 for Warwickshire, but at 25 has still to make the grade despite thousands of Second XI runs there and at Surrey.

As fans we have to trust the judgement of Karl Krikken and Dave Houghton on players who have the ability to score runs at top level. Neither presumably thought that Matt Lineker, another prolific batsman at lower level, had quite what it takes. None of us who watch the club has a real "handle" on what is required to be a good first-class cricketer because we have never done it. Besides the technical aspect there's a mental and physical side to the game that can cause some to fall short of the requisite standard. You can have the best technique in the game, but if you struggle to concentrate for longer than a couple of hours you're unlikely to make the grade; likewise if you're out on your feet at tea time.

The bottom line? Using the players named above as examples, I think all of them are capable of scoring good runs at first-class level, but we may never know, as Turner and Evans are approaching 26 and may struggle to convince a county to give them an opportunity. Elstone is younger, but at 22 is still to play a championship innings for Nottinghamshire. They are among the most prolific second string batsmen this summer, having scored more heavily than many bigger names.

If Derbyshire had signed any of them over the last couple of winters, you may well have applauded and hailed it a good piece of work. Should they do so this winter, some would think it a shrewd move, but the reality is that all are as yet unproven at county level, let alone first division. As a club we have progressed and if you compare those players to what we already have, they are of a similar standard, but not, at this stage, obviously better. The latter costs serious money, which is where we may struggle. With it, and assuming players were out of contract, you could have a James Harris, Gary Ballance, Moeen Ali and top overseas batsman and hike up your prospects considerably.

This will be a tricky business though and I wish Messrs Krikken and Grant the best of luck in their search.

But we need to get promotion first...